Why We Need to Train America's Workers…

Growth in the number of skilled, native-born workers will slow dramatically in the next 20 years

"Baby boom" retirements, flat population growth and stagnant workforce investment could, by 2010, leave 5.3 million skilled U.S. jobs without a skilled U.S. worker to fill them

During the last two decades of the 20th century, the number of native-born workers in the U.S. with some education or training past high school more than doubled (up 138%).   This growth in skills helped America maintain its competitive edge in the world economy, holding off perceived economic threats during the 1980s and 90s from countries like Germany and Japan.

However, during the first two decades of the 21st century, we're facing a potential reversal of fortune.  Skilled baby boomers will be retiring by the millions, yet we have no national plan for how we will fill the ensuing void in skilled workers - let alone how to continue increasing the percentage of our workforce with post-secondary training.  In fact, from now until 2020, there will no net growth in the native-born U.S. population of prime working age (25-54).  And, if current education trends persist, there will only be a 19% increase in the number of post-secondary educated native-born workers - about one-seventh the rate of growth during the past two decades.  Meanwhile, our new international competitors are doubling and tripling the number of college graduates in their countries.

What does this mean for our country's economic future?  If the number of workers does not increase, then the economy can expand only if every available worker is becoming more productive - which, in many cases, will require better skilled workers at all levels of our labor market. 

Some propose that expanded immigration will be sufficient to fill the void left by a shrinking native-born workforce.  But even those new workers are going to have to be better skilled than they are now if the U.S. economy is going to continue to grow as it did for the latter half of the 20th century.  Likewise, others want to encourage aging baby boomers to postpone retirement and stay in the workforce in order to offset potential shortages.  But in this case as well, unless our country makes a commitment to invest in the skills upgrading of these experienced workers, they likewise will not contribute what is fully needed to keep the U.S. at the front of the 21st century global economy.

Other Resources:

Atwater, Donald M. Graziado Business Report: Pepperdine University.  Preparing for a Future Labor Shortage.  Vol.  (7) 2. 2004.
http://gbr.pepperdine.edu/042/laborshortage.html 

Aspen Institute Domestic Strategy Group.  Grow Faster Together, or Grow Slowly Apart:  How Will America Work in the 21st Century?  2002
http://www.aspeninstitute.org/atf/cf/%7BDEB6F227-659B-4EC8-8F84-8DF23CA704F5%7D/DSGBROCHURE_FINAL.PDF

US National Science Foundation.  Higher Education in Science and Engineering: Internationl Comparison of First University Degrees in S&E.  2000.
http:www.nsf.gov/statistics/seind00/c4/c4s3.htm

US Bureau of Labor Statistics: Monthly Labor Review.  Labor Force Projections to 2014: Retiring Baby Boomers.  Mitra Toossi.  2005.
http://www.bls.gov/opub/mlr/2005/11/art3full.pdf